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Recognizing
and forecasting the recession
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Recognizing
and forecasting the recession
According to the information retrieved
from Alfred Economic Data (2017), forecasting can be viewed as a method through
which prediction and estimates for a future event are conducted to provide
future predictions that can be relied upon. Furthermore, forecasting is used to
provide essential information concerning a potential future event and the
anticipated consequences that would be faced by an organization or a nation. Forecasting
is an essential tool that can be used to provide statistical data that is used
to predict trends in the market, population, and anticipated economic
development.
On the other hand, a recession is a huge
slowdown or rather a significant contraction in the economic activities. When a
nation faces a considerable fall in the general spending, this scenario would
definitely lead to a recession. Besides, when an economic slowdown is
persistent, a great impact on the economic conditions would be evident, while
in this situations, the economic indicators such as corporate profit, gross
domestic product, and employment would fall. In response to a prolonged
recession there would be a huge mess in the entire economy, and most probably,
the trading partners would face a significant effect too. The general economy
would react by having loosened monetary policies due to increased supply of
money in the economy. Various aspects, however, can be used to tackle the
menace.
Data problems sometimes prevent us from
forecasting and even recognizing when a recession begins. To understand the
real situation in a nation's change in the general productivity, it would be
imperative to understand what data is. Data is a collection of facts and
statistic which are used to generate information about a specific study or
research. While forecasting means predicting a future after observing some
trends and cycles from data and information over a period of time, a recession
would be illustrated a slimness or depression that a notion, economy of
business face characterized by reduced trade and industrial activities.
Another major aspect that cabs us from
understanding the dynamics and projection of growth in a nation, is tracing the
fall of Gross Domestic Product and the Gross Domestic Income. While accurate
data may result from perfect information which is a true presentation of
reality, the information obtained in the same, or different studies under the
same sector, may vary due to either poor research analysis, poor tools of
correcting data, or lack of scientifically proven procedures to dictate
research methodology. If data have some errors or it is inaccurate then it
would be definite that the outcome shall give wrong information.
The great recession in US economy was
experienced in 2007 to 2009. During this period, the economic situations faced
significant shifts of up and down movement in the price of various commodities
and services. The recession was so severe and it caused a huge wave on the
stability of the United States economy. Through a study of the forecasted data
series of the periods preceding and succeeding the recession period, it is
possible to determine and forecast the beginning of the recession and the
actual factors that contributed to this menace.
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) reveals that the United States’ recession period was observed to start in the year 2007 December and toke roots...